Weekly Commentary – 11th March 2022

Foreign Exchange Reserves

The CBK’s usable foreign exchange reserves remained adequate at USD 8,011 million (4.90 months of import cover). This meets CBK’s statutory requirement to endeavor to maintain at least 4.0-months of import cover, and the EAC region’s convergence criteria of 4.5-months of import cover.

Currency

The Kenyan Shilling depreciated marginally against the Dollar, but appreciated against the Euro and the Sterling Pound. The depreciation against the Dollar is attributable to increased Dollar demand from energy and commodity importers.

	Week Before	Week After
Dollar	113.91	114.18
Euro	126.73	126.10
Sterling Pound	152.41	150.41

Liquidity

Liquidity in the money markets eased, supported by tax remittances which partly offset government payments. Open market operations remained active.

	Week Before	Week After
Interbank rate	5.51%	4.95%
Interbank volume (billion)	12.04	5.04
Commercial banks’ excess reserves (billion)	16.80	16.90

Fixed Income

T-Bills

The T-Bills subscription rate declined but remained over-subscribed during the week. The highest subscription was recorded in the 364 day paper, which offered higher yields. The over-subscription is attributable to the eased liquidity in the money markets.

T-Bill	Yield (% Rate)		Subscription Rate
	Week Before	Week After	Week Before	Week After
Overall			122.12%	102.06%
91 day	7.27%	7.21%	246.04%	132.39%
182 day	8.06%	8.03%	126.01%	58.08%
364 day	9.77%	9.77%	68.66%	133.92%

T-Bonds

The bonds market had lower demand for the week’s bond offers. Bonds turnover decreased to Ksh 19.93B from Ksh 17.27B recorded in the previous week.

In the primary bond market, the Treasury reopened three bonds, FXD1/2021/5, FXD1/2020/15 and FXD1/2021/25 attracting bids worth Ksh 40.9B against the targeted Sh 50B, a performance rate of 81.90% The Treasury rejected expensive bids and accepted bids worth Sh 18.45B – translating to an acceptance rate of 45.06%.

In the international market, yields on Kenya’s Eurobonds increased by an average of 63.2 basis points. The yields on the 10-year Eurobonds for Ghana increased, while that for Angola decreased.

Equities

NASI, NSE 20 and NSE 25 decreased by 3.40%, 1.76% and 2.44% respectively. Market capitalization also declined by 3.41% to 2.48 trillion. The performance was driven by losses recorded by large-cap stocks. Top losses were recorded in Equity Group, KCB, EABL and Safaricom Plc which decreased by 1%, 1.40%, 2.40% and 5.30% respectively.

The Banking sector had shares worth Kshs 544M transacted which accounted for 23.30% of the week’s traded value, Manufacturing & Allied sector had shares worth 498M transacted which represented 20.42% and Safaricom registered a 5.33% decline down to Ksh 35.5 with shares worth 1B transacted.

Top Losers	W-o-W
Transcentury	-18.55%
EA Portland	-11.27%
TP Serena	-8.95%
Fahari I-Reit	-6.67%
Eveready	-8.51%

Alternative Investments

	Week Before	Week After	% Change
Derivatives Turnover (million)	2.53	4.15	64.16%
Derivatives Contracts	8	39	387.50%
I-REIT Turnover	0.35	0.36	4.61%
I-REIT Deals	31	60	93.55%

Global and Regional Markets

Global Markets	W-o-W
S&P 500	-2.88%
Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI)	-1.99%
FTSE 100 (FTSE)	2.41%
STOXX Europe 600	2.23%
Shanghai Composite (SSEC)	-4.00%
MSCI Emerging Markets	-5.18%
MSCI World Index	-1.95%

Continental Markets	W-o-W
FTSE ASEA Pan African Index	-2.68%
JSE All Share	-1.50%
NSE All Share (NGSE)	0.36%
DSEI (Tanzania)	-0.33%
ALSIUG (Uganda)	1.17%

U.S stocks closed the week low, weighed down by tech and growth stocks. Oil prices settled up on Friday but down for the week in volatile trading. World shares slid due to continued uncertainty on the Ukraine conflict and expectation that U.S interest rates will be hiked by The Federal Reserve.

European stocks closed the week higher, rebounding after the previous session’s hefty losses with investors digesting strong U.K. growth, the hawkish ECB stance, and the continuing war in Ukraine. German’s stocks were higher citing gains in the industrial, media and insurance sectors while France registered gains in Consumer Goods, Financials and Utilities that led shares on an upward trajectory.

Asia Pacific stocks also closed the week low, as investors raised concerns on the inflation risk. The Chinese markets were down as five Chinese firms got under threat of being delisted by the U.S Security and Exchange Commission citing failure to comply with certain auditing requirements. Chinese tech shares fell.

On the global commodities markets, Crude Oil WTI closed the week lower by 5.60% and the ICE Brent Crude decreased by 4.82%. Gold futures prices increased by 1.30% to settle at $1,992.25.

Week’s Highlights

• The National Treasury is expected to present the budget statement for the next fiscal year to parliament on 7th April, 2022. The Treasury is therefore inviting Kenyans to give proposals and ideas on policy and tax measures, centered on measures to enhance economic resilience, accelerate economic recovery, improving livelihoods, cushioning vulnerable citizens and generating more employment opportunities for Kenyans and fast tracking the Big Four Agenda, by 22nd March 2022.

• The Central Bank of Kenya has begun approving lenders’ applications to increase the cost of loans based on customer risks. According to Equity Bank’s CEO, the bank’s lending rates for SMEs will range between 14% and 16%, unsecured individuals and MSMEs between 16% and 18% while high risk corporates will attract up to 16%.

• Technology start ups in Africa have raised more than $1 billion in the year to date, which is more than 50% of the amount raised in the entire 2021. The highest start ups were recorded in Nigeria, Kenya and South Africa. Fintech still remains the largest driver of investments on the continent at 38.7%, with 34 start ups having raised over $434 million.

• After exhaustion of the current fuel subsidy reserves, Government sources have raised concerns over the ability of the National Treasury to pay oil marketers subsidies in excess of Sh. 25 Billion to maintain current pump prices of petroleum products that are based on the average crude oil prices of $82.03 against the prevailing price of over $135 per barrel. Monthly review is set for 15th March.

• New investments in venture capital increased to 29, with a total value of $56.3 million in 2021 from 16 the previous year, targeting the financial, agribusiness and ICT sectors that have recently offered high potential growth. Foreign-led merger and acquisition activity declined due to the availability of cheaper cost of capital (including debt) in more developed nations, making it easier and more attractive to carry out M&A activity in the developed nations rather than the emerging ones. The private equity sector is expected to remain resilient, boosted by increased demand for capital from local businesses seeking expansion, while mergers and acquisitions are likely to remain muted.

• To enable firms to attract investors based on their policies and processes that reduce emissions, The Nairobi Security Exchange announced its plans to introduce the Climate Transition Index. The index will include green revenues, fossil fuel reserves, carbon emissions and management quality and carbon performance assessment on the firms.