KENYAN MARKET PERFORMANCE

MACROECONOMIC REVIEW

GDP

Data received during the first half of the year indicates that Kenya’s economy posted a 4.8% growth in 2022, a downward shift from 2021’s 7.6% Covid-19 rebound. In Q1 2023, the economy experienced a 5.3% expansion, a notable recovery from 3.8% in Q4 2022.

Currency

During the second quarter, the Shilling buckled further relative to the US dollar, touching lows of Kshs 140.52 at the tail-end, translating to a 6.04% depreciation and a 13.85% slump year-to-date.

Inflation

During the second quarter, annual inflation averaged 7.94%, easing steeply to 7.90% in April from 9.19% in March, before gaining traction to 8.03% in May and receding to 7.88% in June.

Liquidity

Liquidity in the money markets generally tightened over the second quarter, with the average interbank rate peaking at 10.17% at the end of June, as tax remittances offset government payments.

PMI

During the second quarter, the headline PMI maintained below the 50.0 mark, hovering just below at 49.4 in May, after slowly climbing from 47.2 in April and before sliding to 47.8 in June.

EQUITIES

NASI, NSE 20 and NSE 25 shed 5.11%, 2.91% and 7.99% over the second quarter and 16.06%, 6.04% and 12.92% respectively over the first half of the year.

FIXED INCOME

Treasury Bills

The overall average subscription rate for the second quarter came in at 110.83%, a decline from 130.53% recorded in Q1 2023. Investors’ preference for the shorter-term 91-day paper prevailed, more pronounced compared to Q1.

Treasury Bonds

In the primary market, CBK sought to raise Kshs 135 billion from three bond issues in the second quarter, almost half of which stemmed from a single paper, deemed investors’ favourite seeing the frequency of tap sales.

Eurobonds

In the international market, yields on Kenya’s Eurobonds declined by an average of 0.96% from the beginning of the second quarter but rose 0.29% year-to-date.

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