Foreign Exchange Reserves

The usable foreign exchange reserves stood at USD 7,031 million (3.80 months of import cover). This falls short of CBK’s statutory requirement to endeavour to maintain at least 4.0 months of import cover as well as the EAC region’s convergence criteria of 4.5 months of import cover.

Currency

The Kenyan Shilling appreciated against the Dollar, the Sterling Pound and the Euro to exchange at KES 145.86, KES 183.53 and KES 156.95 respectively. The observed appreciation against the Dollar is attributed to strong investor participation in the 2014 Eurobond buyback tender which was oversubscribed, showing a boost in investor confidence, improved diaspora remittances and tourism inflows.

CurrencyYTD ChangeW-o-W Change
Dollar-7.09%-8.89%
Sterling Pound-8.17%-9.14%
Euro-9.61%-8.98%

Liquidity

Liquidity in the money markets tightened, with the average inter-bank rate increasing from 13.14% to 13.62%, as tax remittances more than offset government payments. Remittance inflows totalled $412.40 million in January 2024, a 10.68% increase from $372.60 million in December 2023 and an 18.03% rise from $349.40 million in January 2023. Open market operations remained active.

LiquidityWeek (previous)Week (ending)
Interbank rate13.14%13.62%
Interbank volume (billion)31.8343.40
Commercial banks’ excess reserves (billion)16.2027.30

Fixed Income

T-Bills

T-Bills remained over-subscribed during the week, with the overall subscription rate decreasing to 177.79%, down from 213.00% recorded in the previous week. The 91-day T-Bill received the highest subscription rate at 654.07% while the 182-day T-Bill and 364-day T-Bill had subscription rates of 112.29% and 52.78% respectively. The acceptance rate decreased by 2.57% to close the week at 92.93%.

T-Bonds

In the secondary bond market, there was a higher demand for the week’s bond offers. Bond turnover increased by 2.67%, from KES 23.41 billion in the previous week to KES 24.03 billion. Total bond deals decreased by 26.48% from 457 in the previous week to 336.

In the primary bond market, CBK released auction results for the infrastructure bond IFB1/2024/8.5 which sought to raise KES 70.0 billion. The issue received bids worth KES 288.66 billion, representing a subscription rate of 412.37%. Of these, KES 240.96 billion worth of bids were accepted at a weighted average rate of 18.46%.

Eurobonds

In the international market, yields on Kenya’s Eurobonds decreased by an average of 0.87% compared to the previous week, 1.54% month-to-date and 1.00% year-to-date. The yields on the 10-year Eurobonds for Angola also declined while that of Zambia increased. Below is a summary analysis of performance for individual bonds.

BondYTD ChangeM-o-M ChangeW-o-W Change
2014 10-Year Issue-4.79%-5.23%-0.92%
2018 10-Year Issue-0.57%-1.11%-1.21%
2018 30-Year Issue0.14%-0.19%-0.36%
2019 7-Year Issue-1.03%-2.02%-1.51%
2019 12-Year Issue0.05%0.45%-0.73%
2021 13-Year Issue0.18%-0.26%-0.48%
Equities

NASI, NSE 25 and NSE 10 settled 0.11%, 0.55% and 0.38% lower while NSE 20 settled at 0.33% higher compared to the previous week, bringing the year-to-date performance to -0.97%, 0.84%, 0.63% and 0.41% respectively. Market capitalization lost 0.12% from the previous week to close at KES 1.42 trillion, recording a year-to-date decrease of 0.97%. The performance was driven by losses recorded by large-cap stocks such as NCBA, EABL and Standard Chartered of 3.46%, 2.84% and 0.91% respectively. This was however mitigated by the gains recorded by Equity, ABSA and Safaricom of 1.34%, 0.41% and 0.38% respectively.

The Banking sector had shares worth KES 225M transacted which accounted for 22.23% of the week’s traded value, Manufacturing and Allied sector had shares worth KES 63.5M transacted which represented 6.27% and Safaricom, with shares worth KES 653M transacted represented 64.51% of the week’s traded value.

Top Gainers and Losers in the Equities Markets

Top GainersYTD ChangeW-o-W
Crown Paint12.20%11.11%
EA Portland9.50%9.50%
TP Serena-1.54%6.67%
Britam-2.92%6.17%
Kenya Power12.86%6.04%
LosersYTD ChangeW-o-W
ScanGroup0.00%-13.49%
Express-13.51%-9.86%
Total-8.33%-7.04%
New Gold-7.17%-7.01%
Diamond Trust1.79%-6.66%

Alternative Investments

LosersWeek (previous)Week (ending)% Change
Derivatives Turnover (million)0.521.20129.15%
Derivatives Contracts23.0012.0091.67%
I-REIT Turnover (million)1.050.00-100%
I-REIT deals94.0000.00-100%

Global and Regional Markets

Global MarketsYTD ChangeW-o-W
S&P 5005.54%-0.42%
Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI)2.42%-0.11%
FTSE 100 (FTSE)-0.13%1.84%
STOXX Europe 6002.73%1.39%
Shanghai Composite (SSEC)--
MSCI Emerging Markets Index-0.82%2.08%
MSCI World Index3.66%0.11%
Continental MarketsYTD ChangeW-o-W
FTSE ASEA Pan African Index-3.16%-0.18%
JSE All Share-3.15%0.45%
NSE All Share (NGSE)39.13%3.79%
DSEI (Tanzania)0.17%0.14%
ALSIUG (Uganda)2.40%1.82%

The US stock market ended the week in the red zone, buoyed by higher-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) data revealing persistent inflation. This dampened investor hopes for a near-term rate cut from the Federal Reserve.

The European stock market closed the week in the green zone, fueled by positive corporate earnings reports in France and Germany. Additionally, investors assessed comments from ECB President Lagarde on the eurozone’s disinflation trajectory, further boosting the optimistic sentiment.

Asia Pacific Stocks surged on Friday, fueled by anticipation of the Chinese market reopening next week after a holiday. Traders flocked to China-exposed stocks, pushing the Hang Seng index near a month-high.

Week’s Highlights

  • Kenya announced the results of its tender offer to buy back a portion of its $2 billion Eurobond maturing in June 2024, with the offer receiving strong interest from investors. The initial target of $1.4 billion was surpassed by tenders exceeding $1.48 billion. In response to the strong demand, the government slightly increased the maximum acceptance amount to $1.44 billion. Accepted notes will be purchased at full principal value plus accrued interest, with settlement scheduled for 21st February 2024. This buyback will help reduce Kenya’s outstanding debt and potentially improve its fiscal position.
  • The Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (EPRA) released its latest monthly statement on the maximum retail prices of petroleum products, effective from 15th February 2024 to 14th March 2024. The pump price of super petrol, diesel and kerosene decreased by KES 1.00 each to KES 206.36 per litre, KES 195.47 per litre and KES 193.23 per litre respectively.
  • January revenues reached KES 1,258.36 billion, reflecting a 15.50% increase from the previous month. However, this fell short of the monthly prorated target by 16.1%. Expenses exceeded revenue collections by KES 551 billion, resulting in a 43.78% fiscal deficit, which was financed through external and internal borrowing by 44% and 56% respectively.
  • The Cabinet approved the privatization of the Development Bank of Kenya and several tourism assets, Kenya Safari Lodges & Hotels, and individual hotels like Golf Hotel Ltd., Sunset Hotel Ltd., Mt. Elgon Lodge Ltd., and Kabarnet Hotel Ltd. This strategic decision capitalizes on the tourism sector’s rebound fueled by visa-free entry, promising increased efficiency, job creation and expanded opportunities across various sectors.
  • Kenyan-based electric mobility startup Roam has secured a $24 million boost in its Series A funding, led by Equator Africa. This powerful injection, backed by prominent investors and the US government, fuels their mission to revolutionize African transportation with locally designed electric motorcycles and buses. The power-up enables Roam to expand local production, scale production and increase utility for customers.
  • US inflation decreased to 3.1% from 3.4% in December, but below the market forecast of 2.9%. Energy provided relief, with prices dropping 4.6%, driven by significant reductions in gasoline, utility gas and fuel oil. Food inflation moderated slightly to 2.6%, but shelter costs remained elevated at 6.0%. Additionally, categories like new vehicles and apparel saw slower price increases, while used car and truck prices continued their downward trend. Despite the positive signs, monthly CPI rose 0.3%, exceeding forecasts of 0.2% and marking the highest increase in four months.
  • UK’s January inflation held steady at 4.0%, falling short of market expectations but remaining double the Bank of England’s 2.0% target. Price declines in housing and utilities, and transport slowed compared to December. Food and non-alcoholic beverage inflation also saw a sharp decrease. However, core inflation, which excludes volatile items like food and energy, remained elevated at 5.1%, above expectations. Notably, only miscellaneous goods and services saw increased inflation.
  • The British economy contracted 0.1% year-on-year in December 2023, reversing a 0.2% expansion in November and exceeding forecasts of a 0.2% drop. This marks the first technical recession since the COVID-19 pandemic, raising concerns about economic recovery. While industrial production grew by 0.6%, driven by transport equipment and pharmaceuticals, this was overshadowed by contractions in key sectors. Services, the largest sector, saw a 0.1% decline, mainly due to drops in retail and motor vehicle repair. Construction also fell by 0.5%.

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